Changes

As I sit down to write, oil has once again hit an all-time high in price. It’s a scary situation because the fundamental dynamics of oil have changed. It used to be that the price of oil was based on how much the oil countries pumped. Prices could be manipulated by OPEC simply by turning on or off valves. Prices were more stable because if one country (for example, Iraq) pumped less, the other countries could pick up the slack. But that has now changed, we now have very little slack, very little margin for error. Most every major oil country is pumping at close to full capacity and it’s still not enough. And that’s why oil prices are heading skyward. Even the threat of instability, as when King Fahd of Saudi Arabia passed away two weeks ago, or when hurricanes approach major refining centers, can drive prices higher. But what scares me is that our oil and energy consumption continues to increase. Our planet already can’t support our U.S. way of life, but now China and India, with almost half of the world’s population are hungrily sucking up oil and gas to support their booming economies. How soon before we start having real shortages? How soon before rationing? How soon before wars flare in the Middle East, in the Sea of Japan, and elsewhere, over precious oil resources. My guess is sooner rather than later.

Those of us who have grown up in the West have grown up in a time of plenty: plentiful food, clean water, clean air, and energy. But I’m afraid that my daughter and son will grow up in a world where these things are much more scarce. And scarcity leads to instability and conflict. And that scares me.

Times have changed and we need to change with them. We all need to make better decisions about how we consume energy. Do we drive the two miles to the post office or do we ride a bike instead? Do we drive to work or do we car pool or ride the train? Companies need to make changes as well. Do you set the thermostat at 70 degrees or 75 degrees? Do you invest in LED lighting and better insulation that is more expensive in the short term but more energy efficient in the long term? And finally, our governments need to make responsible energy consumption a priority and to give economic incentives to companies and individuals to make the right choices because in the end, money talks. A simple tax credit for hybrid cars would spur a boom in demand for hybrids, which are up to 50% more fuel efficient.

Times have changed, and we’ll all have to make changes. Let’s all choose the easier changes now, not the hard changes later.

- Joshua Hon, Vice President September 2005

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